Game Over for netbook Linux?

In Preston Galla's Seeing Through Windows in the Computerworld site, he cites an NPD Group study that has revealed Windows had more than 90% of all U.S. netbook sales for the last three months (actually November, December, and January). The same study also claimed that it was only in December 2008 that netbook sales truly took off. Meaning previous stats showing Linux's dominance in the netbook market were based on a far smaller number of machines sold. So essentially, according to Galla this means the game is over for Linux.

That's the trouble when you try to see through (fogged-up) windows. You only get at most a blurry and often misleading image of the entire landscape. It is not unlike seeing just a small puddle of water through the haze and assuming right away you have a swimming pool in the backyard. Just wait till you try to dive into that.

The fact is the ongoing Linux - Wintel battle in the netbook segment is far from over. Linux's latest foray into the mainstream was triggered by the original low-cost netbook, the Asus Eee PC, via its use of Xandros. Other brands soon followed. But a disastrous misstep by Asus to focus on higher-priced, more featured models opened the door for Windows to grab back some shares. And while the top-tiered brands appear intent to up the ante with higher-priced (and more profitable) models, a new wave of netbooks that adhere to the original vision of affordable cloud computing will soon become available.

A significant common feature of these netbooks is their use of non-Intel, non-x86 processors. If their low prices ($150 and below) makes the use of Windows economically impractical, the lack of a port for such processors makes it a technological problem. So that means even if Microsoft decides to give away Windows for these netbooks, it still has to develop the new versions. Given the very limited potential revenue, it is highly doubtful Microsoft will find it appealing to compete in this particular segment. It will most likely cede this and find other ways to stave off any progress made by Linux.

What this means is within the year, we should be able to expect low-cost non-Windows netbooks appearing just about everywhere - online shops, Walmart, Walgreens, and Toys-R-Us. And they will be selling at prices way too low for Windows-based models to ever match. In short, a totally new game. And one which we don't have to watch through fogged-up windows.