Will ebooks be the Next Big Thing?

A convergence of recent events seems to be pointing at the breakthrough of ebooks after several false starts the past decade. To start off, Amazon’s Kindle was a moderate success enough to warrant a Kindle 2. Next, after convincing people to pay for songs again with its iPod/iTunes tandem, Apple has continued its success with its AppStore for its iPhone/iPod Touch series. It now plans to expand its offering to include ebooks, prompting some obscure European company to file a case of patent infringement. Of course, Google has been busy digitizing just about any printed word it can get it hands on, while Sony, Samsung, et al are now launching the nth iteration of their respective ebook readers.

So will ebooks finally catch on with the mainstream readers? What is so different now than before when even giant print players like Barnes and Noble failed miserably in their ebook attempts?

First of all, why ebooks? Ebooks actually have a lot to offer, aside from being environmentally friendly since they don’t use paper. Text can be searched automatically and cross-referenced using hyperlinks; font size/face can be adjusted; video clips can be embedded; text-to-speech software is available, and they can easily be updated/edited. This last point can be highlighted by the Philippine government’s perennial problem of issuing textbooks full of grammatical/factual errors. The costs of ebook readers notwithstanding (we will get to that), this can be resolved by eBooks, with corrected versions simply being downloaded or emailed.

But what about the downside – meaning so what has prevented ebooks from becoming popular? Well, obviously you will need an ebook reader, which has not exactly been inexpensive. And some ebook readers have poor screen resolution and insufficient or no backlighting at all, making reading difficult. Like all electronic devices, ebook readers are also environmentally hazardous. Some readers also complain of having a different user experience reading an ebook vis-à-vis an actual book. And lastly, of special concern to publishers and authors, ebooks are susceptible to piracy.

The lack of interesting content actually is also why ebooks have not taken off. Early on, most of the available content were public domain material, freely available on the net. Paying for an ebook version of a free material was difficult to justify not to mention seemingly stupid. In addition, most ebook publishers/ebook reader manufacturers insisted on their proprietary formats, none of which were compatible with each other. The 2004 Sony LIBRIe EBR-1000EP, for instance, used an obscure BBeB format, and also set its content to be unreadable after 60 days. Both the lack of content and the proprietary formats were big turn-offs that drove potential users away.

However since then, there have been two significant developments. The first is Adobe’s PDF format. Previously a proprietary format when it was introduced in 1990, it was released as an open standard last July 1, 2008 (ISO 3200-1:2008). Already a dominant standard, it is now expected to be THE dominant standard. This should help solve the fragmented ebook market.

Secondly, there has been a huge groundswell of new content, like Wikipedia, Wikibooks, etc. written specifically for public domain use. In addition, open source projects like Project Gutenberg have expanded their offerings in the interim. Moreover, personal blogs, forums, and social networks have mushroomed all over the net. While their contents are not public domain, access usually is.

Which brings us to WiFi. Early ebook readers did not have WiFi simply because there was no critical mass at that time. Now free WiFi hotspots are ubiquitous. A lot of homes/offices have WiFi as well. Paid subscriptions are affordable as well. Practically all new notebook/netbook models have WiFi. So an ebook reader with WiFi will have access to lots of contents, making the device much more useful now.

But ebook readers are still expensive. Amazon Kindle 2 is $359. Readers from other companies are just as expensive. On the other hand, computers are natural ebook readers. With free PDF readers (even editors) widely available – both from Adobe and others, reading an ebook won’t entail much additional cost. In fact, a PDF reader is usually bundled with Linux-based netbooks.

Some netbooks are even cheaper than dedicated ebook readers. Heck, Xburst-based netbooks sell for about $125 or even less. They make for affordable ebook readers and come even with a bonus – they will let you surf the net, do email, chat, or even make a international Skype call.

So with affordable netbooks doing double duty as ebook readers, WiFi pulling down interesting content, public domain material increasing, will ebooks finally become mainstream?

Interestingly, I see ebooks becoming mainstream more in developing countries than in the developed world. In developed countries, Internet access is widely accessible and affordable. Printed books are also widely available and relatively cheap. Thus, the need for ebooks is not exactly urgent in nature. Even now, it is more of a novelty and a necessity.

But in less developed countries, especially in regions without stable, affordable Internet access, public libraries with sufficient books and bookstores, ebooks will take off in the same manner mobile phones took off in areas without legacy landlines for the reasons discussed above. Kiosks offering downloadable ebooks in the same manner mobile phone ringtones were offered will likely mushroom, too.

Ringtones became popular when mobile phones that supported them became affordable. Now that netbooks (ebook readers) are even cheaper than some mobile phones, ebooks as well as other content (movies, mp3/mp4s) that can fit in SD cards or USB flash drives will be offered in kiosks and hole-in-the-wall outlets.

And while mobile phones are utilized primarily for communication purposes, netbooks can be used for a lot of academic/training purposes. Since their prices are now low enough to be amortized at just $5 per month for four years, civic groups like the Rotary Club can sponsor public high school freshman students to enable them to have their own, effectively breaking down the entry barrier to ownership. For those students fortunate enough to own a netbook, they will literally have the world at their fingertips, whether they are online or not, since ebooks can be read even offline.

And that is why ebooks will be the next big thing for a lot of students in developing countries.